Roll up for the biggest scrap of the century!

HEAD ON THE BLOCK

A political column by Tallyman

The political scrap of the century is set to be staged in Mayo over the coming months, and demand for ringside seats has already reached unprecedented proportions.

It does not take an expert in mathematics to figure out that six into five won't go. One way or the other, there is going to a tear-jerking story breaking in the county, and possibly even two.

It does take an expert in political mathematics, however, to figure out who the fabulous five will be.

Then there is always the prospect of an independent or two throwing a spanner in the works.

Fianna Fail people in Castlebar are convinced that RTC campaigner Paddy McGuinness cost them the seat in the June '94 by-election when Westport auctioneer Michael Ring caused one of the biggest upsets in West Mayo political history.

Beverly Cooper-Flynn, who took defeat cleanly on the chin, will have a more united party behind her this time, although there are still rumblings of unrest in the ranks. Isn't there always?

Fianna Fail would not exist in the first place if life itself was a bed of roses. Talking of which, Beverly has every intention of emerging from the forthcoming General Election smelling of the aforementioned flowers. Needless to say, she will encounter her share of thorny matters along the way, not least of which will come in the form of the fast-talking and super energetic, Michael Ring.

Ringo, as he is affectionately known by his supporters, is determined to top the poll this time, even if his senior ministerial colleague in Castlebar has notions along similar lines.

Enda has little to worry about, really. Unless, of course, the APC issue turns sour on him.

Seamus Hughes, not as charismatic as others in the field but certainly as qualified and able as any, is arguably in the best position of all. Everybody thinks he is the one who is going to lose out. After all, it is argued, Westport cannot sustain two T.D.s in the long term. What can't it? Ballyhaunis , a much smaller town, has done so for quite some time with the ever popular P.J. Morley and the ambitious Jim Higgins.

Okay, I accept the theory that Ring and Hughes have nothing to their backs but Clew Bay, while Morley and Higgins are surrounding by votes from all sides. But, let me tell you this, there are few better connected families in Mayo than the Hughes family of Westport.

If Fianna Fail get their act together, they can take three seats and Seamus may just squeeze in.

Fine Gael will dismiss this as pure nonsense, and they could be right. But I'm sticking with the 3-2 result, just to be controversial if nothing else. I think Tom Moffatt has it more or less sown up in the North Mayo area. He will take one of the FF seats, with Cooper Flynn and Hughes snatching the other two, albeit following a ding-dong climax.

Enda and Jim Higgins will take the two FG seats, with Ring narrowly losing out. Sorry, Michael. But I might be doing you a favour.

Final prediction: The independents will get nowhere this time. Talk about putting my head on the block! .