4 June 1997
LAST SEAT LIKELY TO BE DECIDED ON A HANDFUL OF VOTES
By Tom Shiel
For the first time ever in the history of the State, the people of Mayo will vote in the same constituency in Friday's General Election and already there are predictions that a recount will be necessary before the climactic issue is decided.
The Returning Officer for the vast new constituency, in which 85,374 are eligible to vote for the 13 candidates, said last night (Tue) he expects the count won't be completed on Saturday and he will be "very surprised" if there aren't demands for a recount.
Mr. Fintan Murphy declared: "I think it will go to Sunday and, if so, we have made allowances for that. "With 13 candidates, it will be very tight. I will be very surprised if there isn't a demand for a recount".
While the Independents are adamant they could cause an upset , it will come as a major surprise if the result is other than 3-2 in favour of either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael.
UPSET
Judging by the traditional vote, Fianna Fail should win three seats but Fine Gael claim they have a strong enough team in Ministers Higgins and Kenny and Michael Ring to cause an upset.
FF Director of Elections, John O'Dwyer said there had been a very positive reaction on the canvass and he was confident three Fianna Fail candidates would be elected.
Mr. O'Dwyer, however, did not go along with the opinion that a recount might be necessary. He said he expected the result to be much more clearcut.
The Fine Gael Director of Elections, Pat O'Connor, meanwhile, went for a 3-2 result in favour of FG .
"I think a lot will depend on how Bevereley Cooper Flynn does in Castlebar.", Mr. O'Connor explained. "If she fails to pull a strong Castlebar vote then I think Fine Gael will take the three seats".
EXCITING
Commenting on the count itself, Mr. O'Connor predicted: "I expect it will be the most exciting count ever in the history of politics in Mayo".
There is much speculation as to which sitting TD will lose out. The general expectation is that it will be either Seamus Hughes, Michael Ring or P.J. Morley.
There is also considered to be a strong threat to Jim Higgins' seat from Ernie Caffrey who has mounted a high-powered and well funded campaign from his Ballina base.
The first preferences from the Mayo count will have been tallied by around 1 p.m. on Saturday and that should give a good indication as to who will be first elected.
However, the destination of the final seat may not be decided until late on Saturday night or possibly Sunday. Returning Officer, Mr. Murphy says the count will be adjourned at midnight or a little beyond if much counting remains to be done at that stage.
Tickets for the count are limited with spaces in the Travellers Friend for only about 500 people . That figure includes count staff, agents for candidates and journalists.
The emphasis during the count, Mr. Murphy stated, will be on accuracy rather than speed.
