4 June 1997
By Tom Kelly
High profile outgoing Government Minister Enda Kenny is rated at two to one to lose his seat in Friday's General Election. The odds are being offered by Paddy Power's Bookmakers in Castlebar.
The offer suggests that the Dublin-based chain is not prepared to take too many risks as far as gambling on the new-look Mayo constituency is concerned. So much so, in fact, that they are refusing to take bets on any of the other twelve candidates in the race.
A spokesman for the firm said he expected there would be quite a number of takers for the Kenny bet over the coming days. But punters will only win in the event of the Castlebar Minister losing his seat, a scenario which is considered unlikely but not impossible.
Kenny was believed to be under threat a month ago by party officials. But the Minister for Tourism & Trade turned the tide with a hard-fought campaign in which he put a lot of resources.
It is understood support for Fianna Fail's Beverley Cooper Flynn had been dwindling, but she has rallied in recent days with energetic door-to-door canvassing over a huge stretch of the constituency.
Central to her election hopes will be her performance in the Castlebar area where she needs to command a huge first preference vote if she is to succeed.
In the Fine Gael camp, there is friction over alleged vote poaching with Michael Ring indignant over a swoop by Enda Kenny and his election team on Achill island during the Bank Holiday weekend.
There are also reports from Ballina and North Mayo that Ernie Caffrey, who commanded over 5,000 first time preference votes in his last outing, is going strongly.
Caffrey has a high powered team behind him and his backers include a number of local businessman who are willing to put badly needed money into his campaign.
After a promising start to the election by Michael Ring, the race between himself and Fianna Fail's Seamus Hughes in the Westport area is believed to be 'neck and neck' in the final stages with some observers believing both of them could be elected.
The rivalry between P.J. Morley (FF) and Jim Higgins (FG) in the Ballyhaunis area is also said to be 'intense' with Morley still considered likely to lose out following 20 years in Dail Eireann.
The Green Party's Ann Crowley is being tipped to poll the best of the non-main party candidates, a claim which is being strongly discounted by supporters of independents Gerry Ginty and Richard Finn.
An interesting feature of Mayo politics over the years is the penchant of the electorate in the county for voting contrary to the national trend.
